Can BJP form government in Jammu and Kashmir after delimitation? Understand complete mathematics from figures

Recently, the Jammu and Kashmir Delimitation Commission submitted its final report, which has almost cleared the way for elections here. The commission has re-determined the boundaries of most of the assembly seats in the Jammu region and increased the number of constituencies from 37 to 43 in order to maintain a uniform population ratio.

BJP had benefited in the last election

The new seat distribution proposed by the Delimitation Commission in Jammu and Kashmir has given the BJP hope of forming the government in the state. Even though the election dates have not been announced yet, the party has already made preparations for the elections, paying special attention to the Jammu region. The commission has proposed 90 seats with 43 seats in Jammu and 47 seats in the Valley region. In the last election, BJP had won 25 out of 37 seats in Jammu region.

BJP’s focus on winning 35 to 38 seats

As per the commission’s report, 15 new constituencies have been created in Jammu, removing the existing nine. The total number of seats in Jammu has increased from 37 to 43. “We are working to win 35 to 38 seats in the Jammu region and may win some seats in the Valley (Kashmir) as well,” Ashish Sood, BJP co-in-charge for Jammu and Kashmir, told Economic Times. To strengthen its preparations, the party will organize two meetings of booth workers in two Lok Sabha constituencies of Jammu region on May 15 and 21.

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BJP is also working on reaching out to the beneficiaries of government schemes in the state and taking out rally of such beneficiaries. According to reports, four lakh farmers are benefiting from PM Kisan in Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP leader said that four districts have 100% piped water connection and further work is going on. People are also getting benefits from other schemes.

Why is the BJP hoping in the Kashmir Valley?

The Commission has proposed nine seats reserved for STs for the first time in the state and the BJP feels that this is going to help the party. In fact, in some districts of the Jammu region, the Gujar Bakarwal tribal population is more. BJP believes that this population did not get its due. With five ST seats in Jammu, these tribes will get direct participation in power. The BJP hopes that it will also benefit in the four ST seats in the Kashmir Valley where these tribes are in large numbers.

BJP’s attempt to strengthen its hold in the Kashmir Valley can be a big step. In the panchayat elections held in late 2020, the BJP won three Zilla Vikas Parishad seats in the Kashmir Valley. This was the first election after the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir was made a Union Territory.

Will Pahari support BJP?

The BJP feels that apart from the tribals, it will also get support from the local community called Pahari in this area. The hills currently have 4% reservation. The State Government under the Governor (LG) had constituted the GD Sharma Committee to investigate the social and educational backwardness of various communities. The committee submitted its interim report last year. If the government accepts the report, it will increase the reservation for the hills. The party feels that this will help in winning the trust of the people in the state.

Jammu gets six new assembly seats, 12 seats reserved

The Delimitation Commission has given greater representation to the Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) communities in Jammu by reserving seven and five seats respectively. The new seats have been created from six districts- Doda, Kishtwar, Samba, Rajouri, Kathua and Udhampur. With this, there will be three seats each in Doda, Kishtwar and Samba, four in Udhampur, five in Rajouri and six in Kathua.

Kishtwar district has got one assembly seat Padder Nagseni. The new seat of Doda district is Doda West. Jasrota is the new seat in Kathua, Ramnagar in Udhampur and Ramgarh in Samba is the new seat. The Commission has retained Suchetgarh constituency of Jammu district in view of public outcry.

The commission has reserved five seats – Rajouri, Thanmandi (Rajouri district), Surankot, Mendhar (both Poonch district) and Gulabgarh (Reasi) – for the ST community, seven seats – Ramnagar (Udhampur), Kathua, Ramgarh (Samba) , Bishnah, Suchetgarh, Madh and Akhnoor (all Jammu) – have been reserved for the Scheduled Caste community.