Unseasonal Rain To Push Inflation: Inflation has similarly broken the back of common people. On top of that, the kind of unseasonal rains that have occurred in the country in the last few days, after that the hopes of relief from inflation can be dashed. In February 2023, the effect of increase in temperature was seen on Rabi crops, then unseasonal rains in the month of March left the right stone unturned.
Inflation relief may turn water
Farmers were preparing to harvest Rabi crops. Rabi crop was blooming in the field. But due to rain and hail, there is a possibility of heavy damage to the rabi crop. Especially the crops of wheat, mustard, gram and lentils can be damaged. It was expected that after the record production of wheat in this rabi season, the common people would get relief from the high prices of flour and wheat. The government has sold wheat under the open market scheme through FCI. Due to which the average price of wheat which was Rs.33.34 per kg on February 1, 2023 has come down to Rs.29.65 per kg on March 20. On February 1, the average price of flour was Rs 38.05 per kg, which has come down to Rs 34.64 per kg on March 20. That is, after this step of the government, the prices have come down by about 10 percent. And it was expected that when the new crop of wheat will come in the market, then the prices will come down. But unseasonal rains can dampen these hopes.
Production expected to decline
The effect of unseasonal rains is that the trend of fall in the prices of wheat has come to an end and after the apprehension of reduction in production, a rise in prices is being seen again. There may be a rise in the prices of fruits and vegetables in the coming times. So the prices of mustard, gram, lentils can also increase. According to the Meteorological Department, after March 20, an average of 5 mm of rain has been seen in the country. In which 23.4 per cent in Telangana, 24.1 in Andhra Pradesh, 19.2 in Assam, 17.6 in West Bengal and 14.9 mm in Jharkhand have received rainfall. Vidarbha and Maharashtra have received 7.4 mm of rain. Especially the crop standing in the fields has suffered the most. Crops of grapes, bananas, onions and potatoes have been damaged in Maharashtra. And the unseasonal rains are expected to continue till March 25.
Retail inflation still high
There has been a slight decline in the retail inflation rate in February 2023 but it still remains above the tolerance band of RBI. The retail inflation rate in February 2023 has been 6.44 percent. While the retail inflation rate in January 2023 was 6.52 percent. The food inflation rate in the month of February has been 5.95 percent. The food inflation rate was 6 percent in January, which means that there has been a marginal decrease in food inflation in the months of January to February. The most worrisome condition is the inflation rate of food grains and its products which has remained at 16.73 percent.
If inflation does not come down, there is no relief even from expensive EMIs!
The exact damage caused to the crop due to this unseasonal rain will be known in the coming days. But this loss will have far-reaching effects. If the retail inflation rate does not come down, if the retail inflation rate does not come below the tolerance band of RBI, then there will be no relief even from expensive loans. JM Financial has also said in its report that the damage caused to the crop due to unseasonal rains can have a negative impact on the inflation rate. However, it has also been said in the report that increasing the supply can lead to inflation
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