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Omprakash Ashk, Patna. BJP has been appointing subedars of the party in Bihar or other states as well. This has happened for the first time that with the announcement of the name of Samrat Chaudhary as the new state president of BJP in Bihar, there is so much enthusiasm in the party. On Monday, Samrat Chaudhary returned to Patna after meeting top leaders in Delhi to take over as the president. The way he was warmly welcomed, it seemed that there is no land left for any other political party in Bihar except the BJP. The distance from the airport to the party office is not more than five kilometers. But it took them more than two hours to decide this much. Apart from about half a dozen BJP MPs-ministers, dozens of big leaders including former state president Sanjay Jaiswal were present at the airport to welcome him. Accompanied by a cavalcade of hundreds of vehicles, Chaudhary left for the party office like a true emperor. He was welcomed by stopping the convoy at various places on the way. The scene was such that it seemed that now all the political parties have lost their ground from Bihar. BJP and only BJP is left in Bihar.
There was a glimpse of confidence in the emperor’s claim as well.
Samrat Chowdhary was also brimming with confidence. He claimed that the BJP would win all the 40 seats in Bihar in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Not only this, in the 2025 assembly elections also, the BJP government will be formed in Bihar with a huge majority. If there is a well-thought-out strategy behind the reality of his claim, then only there is scope to justify his exaggeration. Otherwise, it has to be accepted that the BJP can hardly do this in Bihar on its own. Till now, the same party is becoming Nitish Kumar’s hanger-on.
Understand the math of Samrat Chaudhary’s dream
BJP’s intention behind making Samrat Chaudhary the president of Bihar state has been clear. The BJP knows that when Nitish Kumar, who comes from the group of Kurmi-Awadhiya fraternity with only 3-4 percent of the population, remained the CM for two consecutive decades, then about 10 percent of the population of the Kushwaha caste was behind him. The Kurmi-Koiri equation that was laid by Nitish Kumar 28 years ago in Patna’s Gandhi Maidan in 1994, has been a strong foundation to keep him on the CM’s chair till now. Nitish Kumar has also been understanding this. This is the reason why for strengthening the Luv-Kush equation, he kept the people of Kushwaha community together by giving them important responsibilities from time to time. Sometimes he gave important responsibilities to Upendra Kushwaha and sometimes to Umesh Kushwaha in party or parliamentary politics. Umesh Kushwaha is currently the Bihar State President of JDU, while Upendra Kushwaha was the party’s MLC and Chairman of the Parliamentary Board till recently.
BJP is eyeing Kushwaha vote swing
All the hatred of BJP is with Nitish Kumar. BJP is making all out efforts to break Nitish Kumar’s 12-13 percent vote share of his Luv-Kush equation. BJP has been getting 23-24 percent votes. The caste factor in elections has always been important in Bihar. Nitish Kumar’s party has so far recorded only 16-18 percent votes. In this, only 12-13 percent of Luv-Kush votes have been considered. In order to take away his vote base from Nitish, BJP first ousted Upendra Kushwaha from Nitish. The way Upendra Kushwaha also sided with the BJP, the BJP does not have full faith in him. This is the reason why BJP has trusted Samrat Chaudhary more. First he was made the Leader of Opposition in the Legislative Council and now he has been made the President. If he succeeds in getting the votes of his fraternity transferred, then the BJP will have no regrets about Nitish’s departure. If Upendra Kushwaha also remains in NDA, then it is expected that the bulk of Kushwaha’s votes will go to NDA’s account instead of Nitish.
Mahagathbandhan will not be able to do anything with just Yadav votes
On caste basis, Yadavs are the most in Bihar. Barring exceptions, RJD has been getting majority of the votes of Yadavs since the beginning due to Lalu Yadav. At present, the concern of the BJP is that by staying with Nitish and Tejashwi, about 10 percent more votes will be given to the Grand Alliance than the BJP has got so far. BJP is feeling the lack of this 10 percent vote and all the exercises are being done for this. If Nitish Kumar’s base vote (Luv-Kush) slips, then BJP will be defeated and Samrat Chowdhary’s land will also be solidified. Then Samrat Chaudhary will also become a strong contender for the post of CM. If Kushwaha cannot get the vote transferred, then his claim will be ruined. BJP has already made preparations to make a dent in Kurmi votes as well. After the departure of RCP Singh from JDU, it is believed that instead of the weakening Nitish, the people of Kurmi fraternity will give more preference to RCP Singh. RCP is not directly in BJP yet, but its sympathies are well known with BJP.
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