Monsoon this year in India (Monsoon) had reached Kerala before time. The progress of Monsoon remained normal in the month of June, but in the initial weeks there has been less rainfall. Experts have become worried about this. He says that already stricken by the scorching heat, India will not be able to bear the bad monsoon. Although the India Meteorological Department in its forecast (IMD) has said that the monsoon will be normal. According to the IMD, the monsoon will pick up in the coming days and the deficit in rain will be compensated. Kharif season (Kharif SeasonRain is very important for crops.
If the monsoon is less than normal or there is no heavy rain till the first week of July, then it could be a difficult journey for the agriculture-based economy. Experts say that with the onset of monsoon, there will be a reduction in food inflation, which continues to be bullish. Monsoon is very important for more than half of the country’s population. In fact, about 70 percent of the rain that the country receives throughout the year comes during the monsoons. This irrigates the crop in up to 60 percent of the sown area. Almost half of the population is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture. Bad monsoon leads to poor production of crops and increases inflation.
Wheat yield has been affected by the scorching heat
The scorching heat has already affected the rabi crop, forcing the government to halt wheat exports and cut production forecasts by about 5 per cent. Earlier the production was estimated at 111.3 million tonnes, which was reduced to 106.4 million tonnes. Bad monsoon can have dire consequences for the food security of the country.
While the Meteorological Department has predicted a normal monsoon for the fourth consecutive year, on the other hand, the slow pace of monsoon in the first half of June has raised apprehensions about the delay in sowing of crops like paddy. However, the Meteorological Department says that the monsoon is expected to accelerate and make up for any shortfall.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra said that the forecast is good and the rains are gaining momentum. Rainfall deficiency across the country has come down from 43 per cent on June 11 to 18 per cent on June 17. He said that normal rainfall activity would continue over peninsular, eastern, central and northeastern parts of India. He said that after June 23, there will be an increase in rainfall in North-West India.
The situation will not be worrying, it will rain
At the same time, GP Sharma, president (meteorology) of ‘Skymet Weather’ said that the monsoon has entered the third week. He said that as far as the agriculture sector is concerned, there has been less rainfall in the country. But this trend is going to change soon. Sharma said that in three to four days, a cyclonic circulation will form over West Bengal, North Odisha and parts of adjoining Bangladesh, which will change the wind pattern in the Gangetic plains in India.
Vinod Sehgal, Principal Scientist and Professor of the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (ICAR), said that by the end of June, the rain deficit will be compensated. He said that the prospects are looking good. We expect good rains in July. The situation is not so alarming. The absence of heavy rains till the first week of July is considered disastrous for the Kharif crop. The scientist said that good rains are even more important because for a long time hot winds have absorbed the moisture of the soil. Sehgal blamed scorching heat and volatile global markets for food inflation. The demand for wheat has increased globally due to the Russo-Ukraine war. Together, the two countries export a quarter of the world’s wheat.
Monsoon rains have reduced
Food and trade policy expert Devinder Sharma said this year’s scorching heat has affected wheat production and the country needs a normal monsoon for adequate paddy production. In Punjab, 98 percent of the crop area is already adequately irrigated, but this is not the case in all areas of the country.
Sharma said that the monsoon has been sluggish in the first week of June. Some parts of the country have received 80 percent less rainfall. This will definitely affect the production. He said that the reports suggest that the second half of the monsoon will be unstable. Some reports say that the rain deficit will continue for the next two months. There are no good chances. He said that if the lack of rain continues in the second and third weeks of July, it will have dire consequences.
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