Wheat Export Ban: The estimate of wheat production is higher than last year, this is the math behind the ban on exports!

Russo-Ukraine War (Russia-Ukraine War) continues. Meanwhile, the food crisis has deepened in many countries. For example, the supply of wheat to many countries from these two countries, which are called wheat strongholds, has been completely affected. Thus the Indian Wheat ,Indian Wheat) has increased in demand worldwide. As a result, wheat is being sold inside the country at a price higher than the Minimum Support Price (MSP). Meanwhile, the central government has put an immediate ban on the export of wheat from Friday night. The reason being told is that the production of wheat in the country (Wheat ProductionThis decision has been taken due to low production, but no data has been released by the government so far regarding the low production of wheat. Rather, in February (also in the revised estimate in May), the government had released the estimate of production of more wheat this year than last year. Meanwhile, there is a lot of turmoil in the market due to the ban on exports. Let us know how much wheat production has been estimated by the government and what is the possible calculation of ban on exports.

Let us first know the hal-e-wheat

Along with the estimates released by the government regarding wheat production, let us know the Hal-e-Wheat before knowing the possible mathematics of ban on exports. At present, the demand for wheat within the country remains at its peak. The situation is that wheat is running at a price higher than the Minimum Support Price (MSP) this time. The government has fixed the MSP of wheat at Rs 2015 per quintal, but at present, the price of wheat inside the market is running up to Rs 2400 per quintal. As a result, a record shortfall has been registered in the arrival of wheat in the procurement centers set up by the government. However, farmers of Punjab are also talking about less production this time due to heat. There, 90 percent of the mandis have been closed due to low arrivals, but even then Punjab has the largest share in the central pool of wheat procurement.

The procurement has not happened even half of the target so far, lowest in 13 years

The impact of Russia-Ukraine has been the most in the wheat market. Because of this, the prices of wheat are running more than the MSP. Alam is that this time the procurement of wheat at MSP has not even been half of the target. At the same time, this year the lowest wheat procurement is being estimated in 13 years. In fact, this time the government has set a target of purchasing 444 tonnes of wheat. Out of which only 156 tonnes have been procured till May 5. Although it is expected to increase, but it is believed that this time the lowest wheat procurement will be done in 13 years.

In the Revised Estimates also, more production is estimated than last year

The Central Government’s Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare and Directorate of Economics and Statistics had released the Advance Estimate Report in February 2022 regarding the total production of all crops. Under which the production of wheat during the Rabi season in the year 2021-22 is estimated to be about 2 million tonnes more than that of 2020-21. According to the advance estimate report released, wheat production during the Rabi season in the year 2020-21 was 109.59 million tonnes, the advance estimate of wheat production during the Rabi season in the year 2021-22 is 111.32 million tonnes, against the target of 111. million tonnes. However, in the first week of May, the Agriculture Ministry had released the revised estimate of wheat production. Under which production was cut. In the revised estimate, it was said to produce 10.5 million tonnes this rabi season, which was also higher than last year.

The record target of exports and the promise of free ration did not spoil the mathematics

There is turmoil in the market after the ban on export of wheat. This decision to ban export has been taken then. When the prices of wheat-related products have started reaching a high in the market, but the market experts are not considering the reduction in production as the reason for the ban on exports. According to experts, record export targets and promises of free ration can be a major reason for the ban on exports. In fact, the government had exported 70 lakh tonnes of wheat last year, while this time the target of wheat export has been set at 100 lakh tonnes. Which is 45 percent more directly. At the same time, many states have also announced to distribute free ration. In such a situation, there is a possibility of affecting both the targets due to a slight decrease in wheat production. Due to which there may be shortage of wheat in the market.

In this regard, Praveen Khandelwal, national general secretary of the Confederation of All India Traders (CAT), says that of course, there can be a potential shortage of wheat within the country due to the goal of free ration distribution and record exports. He said that right now the effect of this decision is not visible in the market, but the government is yet to release the domestic consumption figures of wheat, after which a lot will become clear.