Soybean price may fall by Rs 4,500 as arrival of new crop increases

On increasing arrival of new crop in the mandis cost of soya bean May fall to a low of Rs 4,500 per quintal. Soybean prices continued to decline due to the prospect of a bumper soybean crop in the current Kharif season, high mustard stock and weakness in Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices in Malaysia. According to Tarun Tatsangi, Assistant General Manager (Commodity Research), Origo E-Mandi, the price of soybean in Indore has reached the level of Rs 5,500 per quintal as per our estimates.

According to Satsangi, we are continuously bearish from the level of Rs 6,800 of soybean and later the price can touch the low level of Rs 5,000. Soybean prices may also fall to a low of Rs 4,500 to Rs 4,800 as the arrival of the new crop increases. However, he says that further fall below these levels is not expected and soybean prices may stabilize at this level and buyers will get active around this price.

Who is buying soybeans

Tarun says that the abolition of import duty on crude soybean oil and sunflower oil, higher supply of CPO and palmolein from Indonesia, Malaysia and increase in import of sunflower oil… are still valid reasons for the fall in soybean prices. He says that there is a sense of despair in the industry right now. Actually, huge volatility in oil and oilseed has become the new normal and we have talked to various industrialists regarding this.

Due to the high volatility in prices, millers and processors are panicking to keep a small amount of stock to run their units, as they do not want to risk their business for huge volatility in prices. Millers and processors are making purchases on order basis as well as meeting their daily needs.

Soybean sowing is same as last year

This year till September 2, 2022, soybean was sown in 120.4 lakh hectares across the country, which is similar to last year’s 120.60 lakh hectares. Soybean sowing is almost over. Now there is not much change in soybean acreage. That is, the production is also estimated to be around last year. However, in many states, the yellow mosaic disease has affected the soybean crop. This can cause large scale damage to the crop.

Edible oil imports increase

In July 2022, India’s edible oil imports were recorded at 12,05,284 tonnes, a growth of 28 per cent on a monthly basis. Whereas in June 2022 this figure was 9,41,471 metric tonnes. However, there was an increase of 31 per cent in imports on a year-on-year basis. In July 2021, 9,17,336 metric tonnes were imported. India’s total import of edible oil from November 2021 to July 2022 was recorded at 9.70 million metric tonnes, as compared to 9.37 million metric tonnes in the same period of the previous oil year.

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